Tsingtao Brewery (600,600): Sales volume declines slightly in the third quarter; expected decline in flexibility continues

Tsingtao Brewery (600,600): Sales volume declines slightly in the third quarter; expected decline in flexibility continues
Matters: On October 28, the company disclosed three quarterly reports, with revenue of 248 in the first three quarters.97 ppm, +5 for ten years.3%; net profit attributable to mother 25.86 million yuan, +23 a year.2%; net profit after deduction 22980,000 yuan, +27 a year.55%. Core point of view: In the first and third quarters, sales volume declined slightly, and structural upgrades and expected declines continued to drive up the ton price: Q3’s single-quarter company revenue was 83.5 ‰, at least -1.7%; net profit attributable to mother 9.55 ppm, +19 for ten years.8%; net profit after deduction of 8.5 ‰, +22 a year.7%.Among them, beer sales in the third quarter fell by 5.9%, Qingdao main brand sales fell 2.4%, mainly due to the overall increase in beer industry sales in July-August, which is expected to be related to the previous inventory digestion and weather and other factors; the company’s beer ton price in the third quarter increased by 4.5%, related to the expected downward revision and product structure upgrade. 2. Increased marketing efforts, the contribution of lowered growth and structural upgrades to the increase in profits: Q3’s single-quarter company’s net profit margin increased by 1.93pct to 12%, driving growth in performance, mainly due to the increase in gross profit margin1.3pct is expected to be related to the expected decline and the ton price increase brought about by the product structure upgrade.Moreover, due to the decrease and decrease, the proportion of taxes and surcharges in revenue has also decreased, which is related to the increase in tonnage prices and the reduction of the consumption tax rate.At the same time, the company’s sales expense ratio increased by 0 in the third quarter.8pct, this year’s marketing and promotion expenses have remained at a relatively high level overall; the management expense rate has decreased slightly, the asset impairment has decreased, and other income has increased. 3. In the medium and long-term, we are optimistic about the company’s product upgrade and development and the continuous improvement of profit after the improvement of management efficiency: the industry’s upgrade trend to the mid-to-high-end industry remains unchanged. In the future, the company’s main resource investment will also be concentrated in this area, and channel costs will gradually be streamlined.In fact, the company’s capacity utilization rate is low, and it has clearly proposed that it plans to close 10 factories in the next five years to reduce excess capacity, which is expected to gradually improve operating efficiency and promote sustained faster growth in 重庆耍耍网 profits than revenue. 4. Profit forecast and estimation: The company’s EPS for 19-21 is expected to be 1.31/1.57/1.90 yuan, corresponding to PE is 37/30/25 times, maintain the “recommended” level! 5. Risk warning: the cost of glass bottles and barley increases; the progress of closing the plant exceeds expectations; intensified competition in the industry affects sales.