Quick review of important events of Yutong Bus (600066): Flying on demand

Quick review of important events of Yutong Bus (600066): Flying on demand

Matters: We have recently sorted out the layout and progress of Yutong Bus in new areas such as RVs and fuel cell buses.

Guoxin Auto’s point of view: Under the background of new energy bus replacement and replacement (complete decline in 2020), Yutong Bus’s short-term performance is under pressure.

In the medium and long term, the urbanization rate will be reduced, and high-speed rail subways will have a certain replacement for passenger coaches. The space for traditional passenger coaches is basically saturated. Looking at stable renewal needs in the future, alternative RV tourism and hydrogen fuel cells are encouraged and supported by national policies.Yutong buses change as needed, seizing the possibility of RVs and fuel cells to open up new categories.

How to pass in the future 1) With the improvement of the infrastructure and supporting management regulations of the national tourist camps, RVs may become an important growth point for the passenger car market in the future.

It is expected that the national RV market will maintain an increase of more than 30% in the next 3-5 years. Yutong has cultivated in the RV field for ten years and achieved sales through high-quality products and after-sales services, increasing market share;The team and research and development have achieved mature strength. In 2018, small-volume supply of fuel cell buses (55 vehicles) was achieved. The “ten cities and 1,000 vehicles” policy is expected to promote continuous growth.

In addition, high-end commercial buses represented by T7 and overseas new energy markets are also Yutong’s follow-up efforts, and continue to maintain its profit forecast. It is expected to return to its mother net profit in 19/20/2123.

24/27.

17/31.

9 billion, corresponding to an EPS of 1.

05/1.

23/1.

44 yuan, corresponding to the current expected PE of 15.

2/13.

0/11.

0X, the average PE of comparable companies in 2019 is estimated to be 20.

73 times, the average PB estimate is 2.

Four times, according to the comparable company estimation method, a one-year target index interval is given to Yutong Bus.

9-21.

77 yuan, currently (closing price on April 21) cashed 15.

92 yuan, still 19%-37% from the target price to improve space, maintain the Buy rating.

Comment: The policy encourages RV tour mode, and national policies are added after road buses to encourage self-driving traveller ecology.

Since 2016, the state’s policy on RV camping and RV excursions has become increasingly clear. With the support of national policies, the construction of RV camps is accelerating across the country.

According to the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” of the RV camps in various provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities across the country, a network of RV service facilities consisting of 4,000 RV camps will be completed by 2020.

At present, there are more than 800 RV campsites in China, and more than 300 have been added in 2018 alone.

At the end of 2016, the State issued “Several Opinions on Promoting the Development of Self-driving Traveler Car Tourism” to promote the integrated development of the RV industry and characteristic towns. In 2020, the self-driving traveler car industry system will be initially integrated.

At present, there is a huge gap between the number of RVs and the construction of overseas campsites, and the market for RVs is vast.

Now, compared with the world in the past, self-driving RV tours still have a long way to go.

1) From the perspective of campsites, there are 16,500 campsites in the United States, with 51 per million people.

There are 72 camps in Europe with about 25,000 camps and 33 per million people.

88.

As of the end of 2017, the total number of campsites in China was 1,273 (825 have been completed and 448 are under construction).

2) From the perspective of the number of RVs, according to data released by the RV Industry Association, the number of RVs sold in the United States in 2017 was 50.

460,000, compared with 43 in 2016.

07 thousand vehicles increased by 17.

2%.

According to the European Industry Association, European RV sales reached 19 in 2017.

06 million vehicles, an increase of 12 per year.

1%.The market value of self-propelled RVs and trailer-mounted RVs has reached the highest growth rate in history, and it has maintained 10 consecutive years of strong growth since 2007.

According to data from China’s camping industry conference, RV sales in 2017 were 2.

10,000 (6 in stock).

940,000), imported 1000+ RVs, exported 15,000+ RVs, 300+ RV conversion companies, 456 new models of RV announcements, an increase of 80% over 2016, 3700+ rental RVs nationwide, and 500+ rental companies or clubsWait.

We believe that with reference to the developed countries in the RV industry, the gap in local campsites has been extended, the number of RVs is kept, the sales base is low, and the future development space is broad.

Driven by national policies and local governments for a long time, RV tourism has continued to heat up, and sales have increased in the past two years.

9%, the RV industry has accelerated into the fast lane.

China is expected to become the fourth largest RV tourism market in the world.

Yutong RV follows the Yutong Bus production and research concept and is expected to become the leader in market segments.

Yutong Bus & Car Division was established in 2009 and has a history of 10 years.

Yutong RV inherits the manufacturing process advantages of Yutong Bus, and through cooperation with American RV manufacturers, has established foreign design studios. From product design and production process planning are completed by American professional RV designers, in cooperation with Yutong’s all-metal body, King KongClosed loop, halogen electrophoresis of the entire vehicle, and other mature process structures to establish a higher level of R & D and manufacturing capabilities.

Yutong’s RV brand has covered A, B, C self-propelled and trailer-type RVs, giving customers more freedom and personalized choices.

A type of RV is the most luxurious class in RVs. This type of RV is mainly based on a heavy chassis frame, typically a large truck or transporter chassis. This type of RV is equipped with almost all the elements required for RV travel.The equipment is ideal for long journeys.

Type B RVs are the smallest RVs in the three types of ABC RVs. Thanks to the flexible car movement, Type B RVs are considered to be the most suitable for on the road. Even in the face of some severe road conditions, the performance of Type B RVs is usuallyMost satisfied.

Type B motorhomes are usually modified by vans, and the frame of the body remains unchanged, or the roof is slightly placed.

Type C RV is between ultra-luxury Type A and Convenient Edition Type B. It is usually combined with a van chassis and a car shell. Some will design a bed on the top of the cockpit, which is convex.RVs also belong to the C type.

Unlike the extreme luxury of the A-type RV, the C-type RV can also provide a variety of comfortable designs and the price will be more affordable.

Type C RV is more like the neutrality of Type A and Type B. As long as it is relatively slender, it can be flexibly moved without losing the comfort of the RV.

At present, the C-type RV is also the most popular type of vehicle promoted by Yutong.

Yutong RV models are mainly C-type RVs, which also have Type A / B / Trailer / Light Business Travel; the chassis is equipped with Jiangling Transit, Mercedes-Benz, SAIC Chase, Nanjing Automobile, Iveco and Zhengzhou Yutong (optional).; In terms of price, most trailer-type RVs are close to the people, ranging from 150,000 to 200,000 (6-10 meters). The prices of other domestic versions of chassis are mainly 40-60 million, and the price of imported chassis is 90.10,000 or even more than Yutong Bus since entering the RV industry in 2009, the Yutong RV brand-Yutong Kailun Bengwei has achieved a leap from dozens to thousands of annual sales, becoming the first brand in RV developing countries.

In 2018, Yutong RV achieved breakthrough progress, with RV sales reaching 1,100 units, an annual increase of 95.

4%, market share of segmented market reached 10%, Yutong RV sales in 2019 are expected to reach 1,800, with a target growth rate of over 60%.

In the future, through the improvement of the national tourism campsite infrastructure and supporting management regulations, RVs may become an important growth point for the passenger car market in the future.

It is expected that the domestic RV market will maintain an increase of more than 30% in the next 3-5 years. Yutong has been cultivating in the RV field for ten years, and promoted sales through high-quality products and after-sales services, and increased market share.

Fuel cells have everything, waiting for the policy Dongfeng Yutong has become a global leader in large and medium-sized passenger cars. It is one of the earliest companies in the industry to develop fuel cell buses. In 2009, it developed the first generation of fuel cell buses and is the first domestic commercial vehicle to pass fuel cells.The certified enterprise has obtained the official announcement of the first domestic fuel cell bus, built the first hydrogen refueling station in the Central Plains, and was approved as the first fuel cell and hydrogen energy center in the bus industry.

Yutong Bus has developed three generations of fuel cell buses and is developing the fourth generation.

At present, Yutong Bus has mature capabilities in fuel cell models, teams and R & D.

1) In terms of models, Yutong Bus has completed 10 meters, 12 meters of “dual configuration” fuel cell transportation, 9 meters of fuel cell group vehicles and other popular models, and has achieved small-scale demonstration operations.

2) In terms of team, as of 2017, Yutong has formed a 45-person research and development team with 6 PhDs and 26 Masters as its core, focusing on fuel cell system integration and control technology, vehicle hydrogen system integration and rapid hydrogenation technology, and fuel cells.Research on test evaluation technology direction.

3) In terms of research and development, Yutong was approved to establish the industry’s first fuel cell and hydrogen energy engineering technology research center.

The research and development center has a planned building area of more than 10,000 square meters, which involves the testing and development of fuel cell vehicles, systems, stacks, on-board hydrogen systems and other key components.

The establishment of the center will greatly enhance the technological research and development strength of Yutong hydrogen fuel cell buses, promote the technological progress of the new energy bus industry, and promote the industrial development of fuel cell buses through the practical application of the entire vehicle.

In 2018, Yutong Bus’s fuel cell transportation achieved mass promotion and application in Zhengzhou, Zhangjiakou and other places. In 2018, the company’s fuel cell vehicles reached 55 sales and revenue1.

77 ppm, subsidy of 15 million, the company’s fuel cell bicycle revenue of 3.22 million, bicycle subsidies of 27.

30,000 In January 2019, Yutong Bus won the bid for the Zhangjiakou Urban Bus Purchase Project, with a number of 3011.

5-12 meters hydrogen fuel cell urban transporter with air conditioner (normal version, 2 + 2 arrangement of the last row of seats). The total bid was 88.98 million yuan and the unit price was 296.

60,000 yuan.

Under the policy of “10 cities and 1000 vehicles” of hydrogen fuel cells in 2019, it is estimated that the sales volume of hydrogen fuel cells nationwide is expected to reach 1,000 units. As a leader in new energy buses, the sales of fuel 西安耍耍网 cells in 2019 are expected to continue to grow.

In the long run, the development plan for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles on China’s fuel cell vehicle technology roadmap: 10,000 units in 2020, 100,000 units in 2025, and 1 million units in 2030.

Hydrogen fuel cells are expected to become an important supplement for pure electric buses and contribute to the long-term increase of new energy buses. Investment suggestion: Change as needed, wait for time to fly, maintain Buy rating Guoxin Auto’s view: Under the background of new energy bus supplementary replacement (complete decline in 2020), the short-term performance of Yutong Bus is under pressure.

In the medium and long term, the urbanization rate will be reduced, and high-speed rail subways will have a certain replacement for passenger coaches. The space for traditional 重庆耍耍网 passenger coaches is basically saturated. Looking at stable renewal needs in the future, alternative RV tourism and hydrogen fuel cells are encouraged and supported by national policies.Yutong buses change as needed, seizing the possibility of RVs and fuel cells to open up new categories.

How to pass in the future 1) With the improvement of the infrastructure and supporting management regulations of the national tourist camps, RVs may become an important growth point for the passenger car market in the future.

It is expected that the national RV market will maintain an increase of more than 30% in the next 3-5 years. Yutong has cultivated in the RV field for ten years and achieved sales through high-quality products and after-sales services, increasing market share;The team and research and development have achieved mature strength. In 2018, small-volume supply of fuel cell buses (55 vehicles) was achieved. The “ten cities and 1,000 vehicles” policy is expected to promote continuous growth.

In addition, high-end commercial buses represented by T7 and overseas new energy markets are also Yutong’s follow-up efforts, and continue to maintain its profit forecast. It is expected to return to its mother net profit in 19/20/2123.

24/27.

17/31.

9 billion, corresponding to an EPS of 1.

05/1.

23/1.

44 yuan, corresponding to the current expected PE of 15.

2/13.

0/11.

0X, the average PE of comparable companies in 2019 is estimated to be 20.

73 times, the average PB estimate is 2.

Four times, according to the comparable company estimation method, a one-year target index interval is given to Yutong Bus.

9-21.

77 yuan, currently (closing price on April 21) cashed 15.

92 yuan, still 19%-37% from the target price to improve space, maintain the Buy rating.