Tin Industry (000960) Annual Report Comments: Increase in Zinc Production Affects Profits, Focus on Price Elasticity of Tin Lead

Tin Industry (000960) Annual Report Comments: Increase in Zinc Production Affects Profits, Focus on Price Elasticity of Tin Lead
The 18-year annual report was released, and net profit attributable to mothers increased by 24.81% of the companies released their 18 annual report on April 16th: the total operating income in 2018 was 396.10,000 yuan, an increase of 15 in ten years.09%; realized net profit attributable to mother 8.810,000 yuan, an increase of 24 in ten years.81%; net profit after deduction is 7.38 ‰, a decline of 19 per year.62%.Revenue in the fourth quarter of 2018 was 82.79 trillion, an increase of 21 a year.21%; net profit attributable to mother 1.53 trillion, down 8 a year.09%, net profit after deduction is 0.54 ppm, a decrease of 86 per year.03%.Due to the increase in zinc output and other factors, the company’s performance was lower than our expectations. As a leader in the domestic tin industry, the company’s tin price elasticity is worthy of attention. It is expected that EPS in 19-21 will be zero.63/0.71/0.89 yuan, maintaining the “overweight” level. Gross margins fell as prices fell, and non-recurring gains and losses increased. According to the Asian Metal Network, the average price of tin metal rose in 18 years.1%, zinc metal average valence temporarily doped with 2.During this period, the metal price was in a state of turbulence; under this influence, the company ‘s tin ingot business gross margin level increased by 3.87 single, the gross margin of zinc business inserted 0 horizontally and vertically.With 11 units, the company’s overall gross profit margin has been reduced by one level.25 units.The report reports that the impact of the company’s non-recurring gains and losses on profit is 1.43 ppm, mainly composed of fair value gains and government subsidies from transactional financial assets. Zinc concentrates are sold everywhere, and the output of tin ore and processing is stable. According to the annual report, the company’s 18 years of zinc concentrate production of zinc.07 maximum limit, minimum 30 throughout the year.28%; sales volume 8.87 lowest, lowest interest rate 17.72%; zinc ore metal production is 10.31 months, the previous year 17.5%.The company’s zinc concentrate has a high gross profit level, and we believe that the decline in zinc production and sales is one of the first quarters of profit growth.The company’s 18-year tin ore metal output was 3.48 Initially, it is increased by 2 each year.13%; tin ingot production is 3.53 Initially, it is increased by 5 per year.68%, tin chemical industry and tin material production have also been stable for many times. The level of tin ore production in Myanmar has fallen, and the supply and demand of the tin industry has continued to improve. According to data from the International Tin Association, in February, the content of tin in Myanmar ‘s mineral imports was about 900 tons, a 87% decrease from the previous month and a decrease of 82%; affected by raw materials. 19Annual domestic refined tin production may decline year by year.We believe that the global tin supply and demand has realized a shift from surplus to balance in 2018, and the industry is expected to show a marginal decrease in 19 years. It is expected to present a layout for alternatives in 2019-2020.In this context, we believe that the tin industry is expected to enter a booming upward cycle in 2019, and prices may benefit.As the tin industry leader and scarce target, the company needs to recognize the company’s profitability of mining resources. The domestic tin ore and 北京桑拿洗浴保健 smelting leader maintains the company’s “overweight” rating. Due to the 18-year zinc concentrate output and other factors, it appropriately lowered its zinc output assumption for 19-21.It is expected that the revenue for 19-21 will be 419.12, 428.43, 432.1.7 billion, net profit attributable to the parent company.53, 11.85, 14.81 trillion, 19-20 lower than the previous forecast of 16.7%, 19.1%, corresponding PE is 20, 18, 15 times.With reference to the estimated level in the industry (average 22 times PE in 2019), due to the scarcity of the target, a certain estimated premium will be given, and the company will be given 23-25 times PE for 19 years, corresponding to the adjusted target range of 14.49-15.75 yuan (was 10).54-11.78 yuan).Maintain the company’s “overweight” rating. Risk reminder: The decline in the price of tin, 淡水桑拿网 zinc and other metals leads to a decline in profit levels; the advancement of mining and smelting projects has not been expected to affect the release of production.